Hailey Upton (Tracy Spiridakos) is going to walk away from Chicago PD. There's no two ways about it. The character will be gone before the end of season 11, and part of the intrigue heading into the new season is figuring out what will cause this to happen.
The most obvious culprit is Jay Halstead (Jesse Lee Soffer), who threw Upton for a loop when he left the Windy City and effectively cut off contact with her. The season 11 premiere confirmed that they have divorced, though, and the episode's climactic monologue shed a lot of light on where Upton is, personally and professionally.
Upton fears that she's no longer a good cop
In a burst of frustration, Upton told Hank Voight (Jason Beghe) that she's been frustrated with her performance on the job, and that she feels like she's losing the sense of calm that initially made her a good officer. "I'm always the calmest person in the person," she asserted.
The longer she talked, however, the more her insecurities surfaced:
""I got angry. And lately... I don't know if I'm not shutting down... I'm angry. And I don't know why. I'm not mad at Jay, I'm really not. I should be good. I should be moving on by now... I can't be a good cop if I'm angry. I don't know what to do.""
It's a pretty intense scene, especially considering that it closes out the season premiere, but it also sets up what appears to be the central conflict of Upton's final season. The character has tried very hard to put the Halstead divorce behind her, but it has seemingly manifested in other parts of her life.
Upton admits to feeling angry after her divorce
The line that most sticks out is: "I can't be a good cop if I'm angry." We know that Upton will be out of the IU by the end of the season, and the line feels like a thesis of sorts for what the character is going to have to face down before she leaves.
The chances of an Upstead reunion are slim to none at this point, but removing this as a possibility could be more time spent on Upton as an individual, and reaching some form of peace with herself, even if it means not having the temperament to no longer be a cop with the IU.
When all is said and done, we feel that this scene will be an important one in Upton's arc.